Top 10 Favorites to Lift the 2025/26 Champions League Trophy

Date: November 27, 2025

Matchday 5 is in the books, and the landscape of European football has shifted dramatically. We’ve seen giants stumble, dark horses rise, and one team in North London assert themselves as the undisputed kings of the continent—at least for now.

Below are my top 10 favorites to win the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, ranked by their current winning probability.

1. Arsenal (24.5%)

Let’s not mince words: Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are playing the best football in Europe right now. Their 3-1 statement win over Bayern Munich wasn't just a victory; it was a coronation. They are the only team left with a 100% record in the competition. With Jurrien Timber looking imperious and their set-piece dominance terrorizing defenses (10 goals from corners already!), the Gunners have shed their "nearly men" tag. They are the statistical favorites.

2. Bayern Munich (17.2%)

Losing to Arsenal stings, but don’t let one result fool you. Before visiting the Emirates, Bayern looked unstoppable. Harry Kane is still scoring for fun, and their demolition of PSG earlier in the group stage showed their ceiling. Vincent Kompany has built a machine that had a rare malfunction in London. Expect them to bounce back immediately; they are still Arsenal's biggest threat.

3. Paris Saint-Germain (12.8%)

Life after the "superstar era" suits PSG surprisingly well. Their victory over Tottenham this week, fueled by a brilliant Vitinha hat-trick, showcased a team that is more cohesive and hardworking than previous iterations. Luis Enrique has them pressing as a unit, and they are quietly racking up points without the usual drama. A very serious contender.

4. Real Madrid (10.5%)

Never, ever bet against Real Madrid in this competition. Their 4-3 thriller against Olympiacos was messy, and their defense looks shaky, but they just know how to win. Even when they don't play well, they find a way to score four goals away from home. As long as they are in the tournament, they are a top-four favorite by default.

5. Chelsea (8.1%)

If you had asked me two weeks ago, Chelsea wouldn't have cracked the top 8. But their 3-0 demolition of Barcelona was a tactical masterpiece. Enzo Maresca completely outwitted Hansi Flick, exposing the high line and using sheer pace to rip the Catalans apart. Estevão Willian is playing like a future Ballon d'Or winner, and with that kind of counter-attacking venom, Chelsea is suddenly the team nobody wants to draw in the knockouts.

6. FC Barcelona (6.9%)

It feels harsh dropping them to sixth, but Stamford Bridge was a reality check. The high line that worked so well in La Liga was treated like a playground by Chelsea’s forwards. The Ronald Araujo red card was a symptom of a system under stress. Flick promised a "New Barca" is coming, and they have the talent to win it all, but until they fix their vulnerability to speed, their probability takes a hit.

7. Manchester City (6.4%)

It’s strange to see City this low, but something isn't quite clicking. Their draw this week—and the questions surrounding their depth—have raised eyebrows. We know they can turn it on in an instant, and Haaland is still Haaland, but right now, they look more vulnerable than they have in years.

8. Inter Milan (4.5%)

Despite a hiccup against Atlético Madrid, Inter remains one of the most difficult teams to beat in Europe. Their defensive structure is elite, and in tournament football, defense wins championships. They won’t blow teams away like Arsenal, but they will grind you down.

9. Atlético Madrid (3.2%)

Beating Inter Milan is no small feat. Simeone’s men are peaking at the right time, playing with a renewed aggression that makes them a nightmare opponent. They thrive as underdogs, and on current form, they are a better bet than many "bigger" names.

10. Sporting CP (1.8%)

With Liverpool in "crisis" mode (let's be honest, that loss to PSV was shocking), the final spot goes to the most exciting team in Portugal. Sporting are scoring goals for fun and playing with zero fear. They might not win the whole thing, but they are the team most likely to cause a massive upset in the Round of 16.

Do you agree with these percentages? Does Arsenal really have a 1 in 4 chance of winning it all? Drop your thoughts in the comments!

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